TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Nithya Raman, 3-4%
- Kalshi
Nithya Raman, 3-4% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:20 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market concerns the margin of victory between two candidates in an upcoming mayoral primary election for a major U.S. city. The event tracks whether the final vote differential between the two candidates falls within a narrow range, regardless of which candidate ultimately receives more votes.
Kalshi
The margin is calculated as the vote percentage of the leading candidate minus the vote percentage of the trailing candidate, with unrounded results. Margins are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound for each range. Separate markets track Spencer Pratt's margin over Nithya Raman (ranging from 0-1% up to 6%+) and Nithya Raman's margin over Spencer Pratt (ranging from 0-1% up to 6%+). A positive margin indicates the first candidate's advantage; the market structure ensures exactly one outcome resolves Yes based on the final certified results.
Frequently asked questions
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2027 following the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary election. Resolution is determined by the official final vote margin between Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman as reported by Los Angeles County election authorities. The specific outcome depends on whether Pratt's vote share exceeds Raman's by the margin specified in the contract terms, with results typically finalized after all ballots are counted and certified.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Los Angeles figures, and shifts in voter sentiment captured by public polling. Media coverage of either candidate's policy positions or controversies can trigger sharp price moves on Kalshi. Demographic shifts in voter registration, turnout expectations, and late-breaking news about either Pratt or Raman may also influence trader positioning. Real-time polling releases and campaign spending reports are typically followed by market repricing.
