TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 28%
- Kalshi
At least 28% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:21 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate will participate in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary election, with outcomes tracked based on their share of the certified popular vote.
Kalshi
Nithya Raman's vote percentage in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary is calculated as total votes received divided by total valid votes cast, expressed as a percentage. Resolution is based exclusively on certified official results, not preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. For ranked choice voting or multiple voting rounds, the percentage reflects the specified round or the first round if not otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate trader expectations, campaign momentum, and real-money incentives that polls may lag. While polls capture voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect dynamic, forward-looking assessments. Comparing the two reveals whether traders believe Raman will outperform or underperform published surveys. This gap can signal emerging campaign shifts or highlight where professional forecasters and market participants disagree on her likely vote share.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Nithya Raman's vote-share contract is priced as a binary or range outcome reflecting her expected percentage of primary votes. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the market's implied probability of the outcome occurring. As new polling data, endorsements, or campaign news emerges, the price adjusts in real time. Higher prices indicate stronger market confidence in a higher vote share, while lower prices suggest traders expect a lower result.
The market resolves on Jun 5, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official results of the Los Angeles mayoral primary election and Nithya Raman's final vote percentage as reported by election authorities. The outcome reflects her actual share of votes cast in the primary, which establishes whether contract holders' predictions were accurate. Traders should monitor official election reporting channels and any relevant regulatory announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in Raman's support, major endorsements or campaign announcements, debate performances, media coverage, and voter turnout patterns. Local economic news, controversies, or policy positions that resonate with Los Angeles voters can also influence her vote share. Fundraising reports, grassroots organizing momentum, and late-stage campaign spending may signal campaign strength. Additionally, broader political developments or changes in voter enthusiasm across the mayoral race could shift market expectations for her final vote percentage.
