TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 850k
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Vol.
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Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:18 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether total voter participation in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will exceed 600,000 ballots cast. The leading outcome currently stands at 96.0%. Resolution is based on official vote counts reported for all participants in the first round, with the market resolving Yes if the total exceeds 550,000 votes. Watch for the June 9, 2026 election date to determine final turnout figures and market settlement.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the officially certified total vote count from the Los Angeles election authority for all participants in the first round of the 2026 mayoral election. All ballot types—provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, and electronic—are included if reflected in official certification. In ranked-choice systems, the vote count identified as the official result by the certifying authority applies. Resolution uses officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals; preliminary counts, exit polls, and projections do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the original date, the market remains valid. If postponed beyond one year or canceled entirely, all markets resolve to No. Each market resolves Yes if the certified total exceeds its specified threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective assessment of first-round turnout, which often incorporates polling data, historical turnout patterns, and registration trends. While traditional polls measure voter intent directly, prediction markets price in real-money incentives and continuous updating as new information surfaces. Comparing market odds to historical Los Angeles mayoral turnout rates and current voter registration figures provides context for whether traders expect above or below-average participation in this 2026 election cycle.
The market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, following the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. Resolution depends on the official final vote count reported by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder for all candidates in the initial round. The outcome is binary: if total votes cast exceed 750,000, the above-750,000 outcome wins; otherwise, the below-750,000 outcome settles. Official certification of results determines the final payout.
Key catalysts include updated voter registration figures, early voting turnout data released by county officials, and campaign intensity in the weeks before Nov 3, 2026. Major endorsements, debates, or media coverage can shift voter enthusiasm. Weather on election day, ballot access issues, or competing local measures may suppress or boost participation. Historical comparisons to previous Los Angeles mayoral races and demographic shifts in the city also inform trader expectations. Real-time early voting reports typically trigger significant market repricing as actual participation becomes measurable.
