TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
25% - 30%
- Kalshi
25% - 30% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:23 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks what share of the vote Nithya Raman will receive in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election, measured across predefined ranges. On Kalshi, the probability that she receives between 20% and 25% stands at 37.0%, while the probability she receives between 25% and 30% is at 30.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified percentage of the popular vote as officially recorded. Watch for the election results on June 2, 2027, when the first-round vote totals are certified.
Kalshi
The vote percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Nithya Raman ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate polling data alongside other signals like campaign momentum, fundraising, and voter sentiment. While traditional polls measure voter intent at a single point in time, prediction markets continuously update as new information emerges. Comparing market-implied probabilities to the latest polling averages can reveal whether traders expect Raman's support to diverge from current survey results by election day on Jun 2, 2027.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in Raman's support, major campaign announcements or endorsements, debate performances, media coverage, and voter mobilization efforts. Economic conditions, local issues like homelessness and public safety, and turnout patterns in her base neighborhoods could significantly impact her first-round vote share. Late-breaking news, candidate withdrawals, or unexpected controversies involving other candidates may also reshape the race dynamics before the June 2027 election.
