TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
30% - 35%
- Kalshi
30% - 35% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:24 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the share of votes Karen Bass is expected to receive in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election, measured against specific percentage bands. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Bass receiving between 30% and 35% of the popular vote—stands at 34.0%, while the outcome of Bass receiving between 25% and 30% is at 26.0%. Resolution will be determined by the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bass in the first round, as officially recorded. Watch for the election results on June 2, 2027, when the certified vote totals will be released.
Kalshi
The vote percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Karen Bass ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations and can diverge from traditional polling. While polls measure voter sentiment at a snapshot in time, prediction markets incorporate real-money incentives, late-breaking news, and dynamic information. Comparing the current implied probability on Kalshi to published polling averages for Bass's first-round support reveals whether markets are pricing in different assumptions about turnout, candidate momentum, or undecided voter behavior than pollsters are estimating.
The market resolves on Nov 3, 2026, following the Los Angeles mayoral election's first round. Resolution is determined by the official vote count and whether Karen Bass meets the specified threshold in the first round. The outcome is binary: either the condition is met or it is not. Traders should monitor official election results and any recount or certification processes that may affect the final determination.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in Bass's support, campaign announcements or endorsements, media coverage of competing candidates, voter turnout forecasts, and major local policy developments. Debate performances, fundraising reports, and ground-game activity could reshape trader expectations. Late-breaking scandals, demographic shifts in voter registration, or unexpected candidate withdrawals may also trigger significant price movement. Election day itself and early voting trends will be critical signals as the market approaches resolution on Nov 3, 2026.
