TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 27, 11:14 AM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Nithya Raman will win the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election scheduled for 2026, with the leading outcome at 99.0% probability and the alternative outcome at 1.0%. Resolution is determined by official results from the Los Angeles mayoral election first round. Watch for the completion of first-round voting in 2026, which will determine whether the market resolves to Yes or No based on the official outcome.
The first-round winner of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is determined by which candidate receives a plurality of votes in the initial voting round. Markets are eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, allowing for earlier resolution based on reliable reporting rather than waiting for official certification.
The Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner market resolves on Jun 2, 2027, following the official first-round voting in Los Angeles. Resolution is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in that round, as certified by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder and other official election authorities. The market will settle based on the publicly announced results, ensuring that all traders have access to the same authoritative outcome data before final payouts are processed.
Several catalysts could shift odds for the Los Angeles mayoral election: first round winner before Jun 2, 2027. Major campaign announcements, endorsements from prominent city officials, and media coverage of candidate platforms can reshape trader expectations. Polling releases, debate performances, and fundraising reports provide new information about candidate viability. Late-breaking scandals or gaffes may damage a frontrunner's chances, while grassroots mobilization efforts could boost an underdog. Turnout forecasts and demographic shifts in voter registration also influence market pricing as traders reassess which candidate is most likely to win the first round.