TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Karen Bass, 4-8%
- Kalshi
Karen Bass, 4-8% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:19 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks the specific margin by which incumbent Karen Bass will win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. The leading outcome—that Bass wins by a margin between 4% and 8%—stands at 99.0%, while the possibility of a margin between 8% and 12% is at 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by official election results as reported by Los Angeles election authorities. Watch for the first-round voting results on election day in 2026, which will determine the final margin and settle the market by the April 28, 2027 resolution date.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage or raw vote count received by the candidate minus the votes received by the candidate finishing immediately behind them if they win, or minus the votes of the leading candidate if they lose. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied. If a candidate wins, the margin is positive; if they lose, the margin is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where a candidate is the only option, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. Votes for the same candidate running under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional polling. While polls measure voter intent at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, historical election data, and trader expertise. The current market probability suggests traders are pricing in specific scenarios about candidate performance and vote distribution. Comparing market odds to published polls can reveal whether traders expect polling to shift, underestimate certain candidates, or anticipate late-breaking developments before the Apr 28, 2027 resolution.
The market resolves on Apr 28, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced for the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election. The specific outcome depends on the final vote tallies and how the margin is calculated and certified by election authorities. Traders should monitor official election results and any potential recounts or disputes that could affect the final determination of the margin threshold.
Key catalysts include candidate endorsements, debate performances, and campaign spending announcements that shift voter perception. Polling releases showing momentum changes or demographic shifts can trigger significant market moves. Local news coverage of candidate scandals, policy announcements, or voter registration drives may alter trader expectations. Turnout forecasts and early voting data closer to election day typically drive late volatility. Unexpected withdrawals or consolidations among candidates could dramatically reshape margin expectations, causing sharp repricing of the outcome probabilities on Kalshi.
