TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Nithya Raman
- Kalshi
Nithya Raman - Kalshi
1W
News
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Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 27, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 27, 11:17 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether Nithya Raman will finish in second place during the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election based on certified results. On Kalshi, the probability of Raman finishing second stands at 99.0%, with Karen Bass at 1.0%. The resolution source is the certified results from the Los Angeles mayoral election's first round. Watch for the certified election results expected around June 2, 2027, which will determine the final outcome.
Kalshi
Second place ranking is determined by the voting method used: for plurality voting, rank is based on vote count or percentage; for ranked choice voting, the runner-up is the candidate eliminated in the final round; for two-round systems, rank is based on final round results if a second round occurs, otherwise first-round totals; for proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving second place resolve all named candidate markets to No unless a specific write-in or other option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and betting incentives that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous updates from participants with financial stakes in accuracy. For the Los Angeles mayoral second-place outcome, market prices reflect trader conviction about which candidate will actually finish second in the first round, potentially differing from snapshot polling. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing in late-breaking developments or candidate momentum shifts that surveys have not yet captured.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027 following the conclusion of the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election. Resolution is determined by the official election results released by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder, which will identify which candidate receives the second-highest vote total in the first round. Once results are certified and confirmed, the contract settles based on the actual second-place finisher. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process typically completes within days of the election as vote counts are finalized and certified.
Several catalysts could shift market odds for second-place finishers before Jun 2, 2027. Major endorsements from city officials, labor unions, or prominent figures can redirect voter support and alter the competitive ranking. Debate performances or viral campaign moments may boost or damage candidate momentum. Media coverage of policy positions, scandals, or gaffes can reshape voter perceptions overnight. Polling releases showing shifts in voter preference directly influence trader positioning. Campaign spending announcements or fundraising milestones signal candidate viability. Turnout predictions and demographic shifts in early voting or mail-in ballots also move prices. As election day approaches, each new data point or news event prompts traders to reassess which candidate is most likely to finish second.
