TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 2:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Hugo Soto-Martinez will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 13 election. On Kalshi, the probability of Soto-Martinez winning stands at 84.0%, with an alternative outcome at 5.0%. Resolution will be determined by the official results of the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election. Watch for campaign developments and voter sentiment shifts leading up to the November 3, 2026 election day.
The market resolves to Yes upon the victory of any candidate in the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 13 election. Resolution may be accelerated following a consensus projection by major media organizations. The outcome is determined by the winner of the general election in this district.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different candidates. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that candidate’s probability of winning. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the most up-to-date information and expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and volume—currently $31,558—influence how efficiently prices incorporate new data and how much slippage traders might experience when executing orders.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk for the Los Angeles District 13 election. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official count will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final vote tally to understand how this market will be settled.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Dec 1, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures or organizations, significant fundraising announcements, and unexpected events affecting candidate reputations could all shift trader sentiment. Debates and public forums offer opportunities for candidates to sway voters, and subsequent poll releases will be closely watched. Any news regarding voter turnout projections or changes to election procedures could also influence trading activity and move the odds in this market. Unexpected campaign controversies or shifts in the political landscape are also potential catalysts.