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Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
polymarket

Longest GitHub critical incident in October?

Sep 30, 2026, 8:57 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$18,446
Volume 24h:
$2,590
513%
Liquidity:
$2,866
37%
Open interest:
$2,040N/A

3-6 hours

 - Polymarket

3-6 hours - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 1, 2026

Time left: 16d:23h:19m

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 49¢ buys you 204 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $204 | Net Profit: $104 Multiplier: 2.04x | ROI: 104% APY not meaningful 16 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3-6 hours

Trade
49%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
$1,059
$5,170
10%
212%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

6-12 hours

Trade
33%
4%
Yes 34¢No 69¢
3¢
$1,013
$6,222
6%
104%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

12+ hours

Trade
16%
2%
Yes 19¢No 87¢
6¢
$794
$2,604
8%
155%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
polymarket

<1 hour

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,951
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
No
polymarket

1-3 hours

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,499
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 2d 23h
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GitHub incident duration market tracks the current odds for each possible duration range of a critical incident occurring in October. You can view the implied probability of each outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1,050. The total volume traded on this market is $18,446. This allows users to gauge market sentiment and see which durations are considered most likely by those trading on the platform. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. While traditional analysts may offer opinions on the likelihood of a prolonged GitHub outage based on past performance and infrastructure assessments, this market reflects the wisdom of the crowd. Currently, the most probable outcome, with a chance of 48.5%, suggests traders believe a specific incident duration is most likely. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information, including real-time data and anecdotal evidence, than typical analyst reports.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likelihood of different incident durations. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price discovery process is driven by supply and demand, meaning that if many traders believe a longer outage is likely, the price of shares representing that duration will increase.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The longest critical incident experienced by GitHub during the month of October will be determined by reviewing official GitHub status pages and incident reports. The duration of the incident, measured in hours, will be used to determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available information regarding any service disruptions affecting GitHub’s core functionality.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any announcement from GitHub regarding infrastructure upgrades or security vulnerabilities could influence trader sentiment. A smaller, but highly publicized, incident could increase awareness and trading volume, shifting the odds. Unexpected reports of widespread outages affecting similar platforms might also impact predictions. Furthermore, major software releases or updates to GitHub’s systems could introduce new risks, potentially increasing the perceived likelihood of a critical incident and affecting the price of shares in this market.