TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks which private company will hold the largest valuation as of June 30, 2026, based on NPM pricing data. SpaceX is priced at 95.1% to lead the field, while Anthropic follows at 3.5% on Polymarket. Resolution will be determined by NPM valuations published through the specified date, with the platform updating prices once daily at 1:00 PM ET on trading days. Watch for NPM's final valuation publication by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, which will serve as the official resolution benchmark.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time consensus from thousands of traders betting capital on private-company valuations, whereas traditional analyst forecasts tend to update less frequently and rely on published reports and equity research. Markets price in breaking news, funding announcements, and shifting investor sentiment faster than formal analyst revisions. While analysts may focus on fundamentals and growth metrics, prediction markets aggregate distributed information across the trading community. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less bullish than the research consensus on a particular company's June valuation standing.
On Polymarket, the market for largest private company valuation by June 30 is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a candidate company. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 cent, with the implied probability derived from the current market price. OpenAI currently shows the highest implied probability among listed outcomes. Volume and liquidity vary by outcome; deeper liquidity in leading candidates allows larger positions with tighter spreads. The price discovery process reflects collective trader expectations about which company will retain or achieve the top private valuation by the resolution date.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution hinges on identifying which private company holds the highest valuation as of June 30, 2026. This determination typically draws on verified funding rounds, secondary market transactions, company announcements, and credible third-party valuations published around that date. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on market structure: either a single winner is declared, or the market resolves to the company with the largest confirmed private valuation. Traders should monitor late-June announcements, funding closings, and valuation updates from major private-market data providers.
Major funding announcements, acquisitions, or IPO filings by leading private companies will shift market odds significantly. Valuation changes from secondary markets, employee stock sales, or new investment rounds directly impact which company holds the top spot. Regulatory developments affecting AI companies, macroeconomic shifts, or geopolitical events may alter investor appetite for specific sectors. Earnings or performance updates from public peers can influence private-company valuations by proxy. Additionally, mergers, bankruptcies, or strategic pivots by contenders could reshape the competitive landscape. Traders should track venture capital activity, tech industry news, and quarterly updates from major private firms through June.