TOTAL VOLUME:

$93.5b

24H VOL:

$252,075,129

24H TRANSACTIONS:

895,665,474

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,110,947,921

787,557

Markets across

13,632

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

892

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

46%

VS.

Kalshi:

54%

BETA
Largest private company end of July?

Largest private company end of July? Odds & Prediction Markets

Jun 30, 2026, 12:22 PM EST - Aug 1, 2026, 2:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$20,326
Volume 24h:
$221
75%
Liquidity:
$31,125
25%
Open interest:
$5,379N/A
PredictionHero
Anthropic 98%
polymarket
OpenAI 0.5%
polymarket
Databricks 0.25%
polymarket
Jun 30Jul 1Jul 1Jul 2Jul 2Jul 3Jul 3Jul 4Jul 4Jul 5Jul 5Jul 6Jul 6Jul 7Jul 7Jul 8Jul 8Jul 9Jul 9Jul 10Jul 10Jul 11020406080100

Time left: 21d:12h:06m

Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?

98%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the listed company with the largest private market valuation on July 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on August 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on August 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the largest private company market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for which private firm will hold the highest valuation as of late July. The interface displays trader positions, order flow, and cumulative volume as participants buy and sell shares reflecting their conviction on the outcome. This market aggregates collective intelligence from prediction traders worldwide, updating continuously to reflect new information about private company valuations, funding rounds, and market sentiment shifts throughout the tracking period.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time signals—recent funding announcements, executive changes, and competitive developments—faster than formal research cycles. While equity analysts publish periodic reports on private company valuations, this market reflects live consensus from thousands of participants with direct financial incentive to forecast accurately. Prediction markets tend to aggregate dispersed information efficiently, though analyst reports remain valuable for deep-dive context on valuation drivers and business fundamentals underlying the odds.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker, with each share worth $0.00–$1.00 reflecting the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome—such as Epic Games holding the largest private valuation—directly encodes the collective belief of all active traders. As new information emerges, traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down until supply and demand reach equilibrium, creating a continuous probability estimate.

This market resolves around Aug 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning outcome is determined by identifying which private company holds the largest valuation on that date, based on the most recent reliable valuations reported by financial news sources, company announcements, or industry databases. Resolution hinges on factual verification rather than subjective judgment, ensuring clarity and finality once the reference date passes.

Major funding announcements, acquisition rumors, or IPO filings can shift valuations dramatically and reshape odds in this market. Executive leadership changes, product launches, or regulatory developments affecting top private firms will influence trader positioning. Competitive dynamics—such as one company gaining market share or facing headwinds—also drive repricing. Additionally, broader macroeconomic shifts, venture capital sentiment changes, or shifts in investor appetite for specific sectors can cascade through private valuations and alter the relative standing of contenders heading into the resolution window.

Follow the signals, not the noise

Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.

PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.19.1PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.