TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Volume:
$4,971,862

$500M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 6:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$500M

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,100,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$500M

View
98%
16%
Yes 98¢No 2¢
—
$16,725
$62,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$250M

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$649,771
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$250M

View
99%
7%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$12,191
$72,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$100M

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$399,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$100M

View
99%
4%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$15,079
$37,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$50M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$194,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$50M

View
99%
1%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$13,421
$51,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$350M

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$160,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
polymarket

$25M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$122,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$25M

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$11,816
$21,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$10M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$122,038
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
Yes
predict

$10M

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$10,179
$28,630
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
predict

$1B

View
1%
63%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$2,594
$115,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$1B

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,560,317
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$750M

View
0%
59%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$1.5B

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,536
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$2B

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$3B

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$5B

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,399
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
polymarket

$4B

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,281
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2d
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the probability of the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the LAPTOP token exceeding $1 billion one day after its launch. Currently, the consensus probability of this outcome is 100.0%. This assessment aggregates data from Polymarket and Predict, with resolution determined by the most liquid price source available at the time of resolution. According to the resolution rules, a fallback resolution of ‘No’ will be triggered if the LAPTOP token does not launch by December 31, 2026, so keep a close eye on the launch date to understand if this market will resolve to a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict markets share identical resolution criteria regarding FDV calculation, launch definition, timing, and fallback conditions.Primary resolution logic: The most liquid price source available at the time of resolution.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price.
  • The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered launched.
  • Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch.
  • If the LAPTOP token does not launch by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Publicly Tradable Price: If no liquid price source exists at 4:00 PM ET the day after launch, the market will likely be paused or resolved based on the best available data, potentially leading to subjective assessment by the platform.
  • Launch Date Dispute: Disputes over the official launch date will be resolved based on the official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmation by Hunter Biden or his official representatives.
Timing: 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the LAPTOP token's launch, or December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if no launch occurs.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of the LAPTOP token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token referenced in this market is LAPTOP, the token announced by Hunter Biden for launch on Base, as identified by the token's official channels (https://x.com/Laptoptoken) and confirmed by Hunter Biden or his official representatives. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If the LAPTOP token has not launched by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a different type of information than traditional polls. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market incentivizes participants to reveal their *true* beliefs through financial stakes. This can lead to divergences, especially when strong biases or social desirability concerns are present in polling data. While not a perfect correlation, the collective wisdom of traders in this market can provide a valuable signal about the likely outcome, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than polls alone. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict in the LAPTOP FDV market can arise from several factors. Differences in trading volume – currently $1,768,735 across both platforms – and user base composition can lead to varying price discovery. Furthermore, each platform attracts different types of traders with varying risk appetites and information sets. These factors, combined with potential temporary imbalances in buy and sell orders, can cause the odds to diverge. The differing probabilities reflect the unique market dynamics on each platform, offering traders opportunities for arbitrage and informed speculation.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding the LAPTOP project, such as partnerships, technological advancements, or regulatory developments, could shift trader sentiment. Broader market trends in the cryptocurrency space, including overall investor risk appetite and the performance of similar projects, will also play a role. Unexpected news related to the team behind LAPTOP or potential security vulnerabilities could also cause price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities.