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LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner?
polymarket

LA Mayoral Election: First Round Winner?

Volume:
$829,829

Karen Bass

 - Polymarket

Karen Bass - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 1, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Karen Bass

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$201,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spencer Pratt

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$406,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nithya Raman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197,534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindsey Horvath

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Asaad Alnajjar

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rae Huang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,406
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gina Viola

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Monica Rodriguez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,556
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rick Caruso

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Austin Beutner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Adam Miller

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks which candidate will receive the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election. On Polymarket, Karen Bass leads with 97.6% probability of finishing first, while Spencer Pratt holds 1.9% probability. Resolution will be determined by official results reported by the city and county of Los Angeles. Watch the June 2, 2026 election day results to see whether Bass maintains her commanding lead or if an unexpected challenger emerges.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from traditional polling. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate continuous information from traders with financial incentive to forecast accurately. For the LA mayoral first round, market odds may lead or lag polls depending on recent campaign developments, endorsements, or fundraising announcements. Comparing the two reveals whether traders see different momentum than pollsters, offering complementary perspectives on candidate viability.

Major catalysts include televised debates, which can shift voter perception and trader positioning; new polling releases showing momentum changes; significant endorsements from labor unions, community leaders, or elected officials; campaign finance disclosures revealing spending disparities; media investigations or scandals affecting candidate viability; and turnout models as election day approaches. Grassroots organizing efforts, ballot access challenges, and last-minute campaign pivots can also influence market prices. Traders monitor all these signals to adjust their positions ahead of the June election.