TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Katy Tyndell
- Kalshi
Katy Tyndell - Kalshi
1W
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Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 4, 9:32 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will secure the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Kansas 4th Congressional District House race. On Kalshi, Chris Carmichael holds a 61.0% probability of winning the nomination, while Katy Tyndell stands at 32.5%. The market resolves based on official confirmation of the Democratic nominee for the 2026 KS-04 House seat. Watch the Democratic primary process and candidate announcements leading up to the November 3, 2026 general election date, as the nomination contest unfolds.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if any of the following candidates wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 KS-04 House seat: Chris Carmichael, Cole Epley, Ryan Gilbert, Jordan Mitchell, or Katy Tyndell. Each candidate's victory in the primary election triggers a Yes resolution for their respective market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate trader expectations, fundraising data, and real-time campaign momentum alongside survey results. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate ongoing information and financial incentives for accuracy. For the KS-04 Democratic race, market prices may lead or lag polling depending on whether traders anticipate shifts in candidate viability, turnout, or endorsement effects. Comparing the two approaches helps observers understand both current voter preferences and market-based forecasts of the eventual nominee.
The KS-04 Democratic nominee market resolves on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Democratic nominee selected for Kansas's 4th congressional district, whether through primary election results, convention proceedings, or other official party designation processes. Traders should monitor state party announcements, primary election schedules, and any procedural changes that could affect the timing or method of nominee selection. The market will settle once the Democratic nominee is officially confirmed by relevant party authorities or election officials.
Key catalysts for price movement in the KS-04 Democratic nominee market include primary election results, candidate endorsements from local and national party figures, debate performances, fundraising announcements, and polling releases. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or entries could significantly shift odds. Media coverage of candidate scandals, policy positions, or campaign momentum also influences trader sentiment. Turnout expectations, voter registration trends, and grassroots organizing efforts may signal shifting viability. As the Nov 3, 2026 resolution date approaches, any official party guidance on nominee selection procedures or timeline changes could trigger rapid repricing. Traders should track Kansas Democratic Party communications and candidate campaign developments closely.
