TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth?
polymarket
kalshi

Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth?

Total volume:
$5,029
Volume 24h:
$346
58%
Liquidity:
$4,269
125%
Open interest:
$97
0%

Above 0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Apr 2, 2027

Will The Kroger Co. report Above 0% identical sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q3 2026?

72%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 72¢ buys you 139 shares | Odds: 72% Total Payout: $139 | Net Profit: $39 Multiplier: 1.39x | ROI: 39% | APY: 112% 159 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0%

Trade
72%
Yes 72¢No 38¢
10¢
N/A
$97
0%
N/A
$97
5mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

0.5% to 1%

Trade
36%
5%
Yes 37¢No 66¢
3¢
$1,093
$1,420
19%
167%
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

0% to 0.5%

Trade
27%
2%
Yes 28¢No 75¢
3¢
$815
$1,078
6%
151%
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

<0%

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
$1,127
$1,645
1%
272%
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

1%+

Trade
19%
2%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
$1,234
$789
5%
157%
N/A
1mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Above -2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above -1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above -0.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 1%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 1.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
10¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
kalshi

Above 3%

Trade
N/A
N/A
8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5mo 1w 2d
active
Total markets: 13

Description

This group forecasts Kroger's identical sales growth (excluding fuel) for the third fiscal quarter of 2026. The markets aim to predict whether this growth will be positive, negative, or fall within specific ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers multiple 'YES' conditions based on various thresholds, while Polymarket focuses on specific range-based questions. Polymarket also provides detailed fallback logic.Hero tip: Focus on Polymarket's range-based questions for more precise predictions. Consider the potential for Kalshi's multiple 'YES' conditions to skew market sentiment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on specific range questions (below 0%, 0%-0.5%, 0.5%-1%, above 1%) with detailed fallback logic for missing data and range reporting. 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if Kroger reports identical sales growth (excl. fuel) above any of the thresholds: -2.0%, -1.0%, -0.5%, 0.0%, 0.5%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, 3.0%. Multiple conditions can trigger a YES resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Kroger's announced identical sales without fuel growth for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Kroger's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Kalshi

The event evaluates Kroger's identical sales growth excluding fuel for Q3 2026 against multiple sequential thresholds ranging from above -2.0% to above 3.0%. Each threshold represents a distinct market outcome, resolving to 'Yes' if Kroger's reported sales growth for the quarter meets or exceeds the specified level. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold must be assessed separately against the same underlying sales data. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Kroger, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The resolution hinges solely on Kroger's publicly reported identical sales growth figure for the specified period, with each market’s 'Yes' outcome contingent upon achieving its particular growth benchmark.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks predictions about Kroger's identical sales growth (excluding fuel) for the third quarter of 2026. The Kroger Q3 sales market aggregates trading activity from both platforms, providing a consensus view of expectations. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $5,029, with $346 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows traders to express their beliefs on Kroger’s performance and profit from correctly anticipating the outcome. The dashboard displays the current prices and probabilities as determined by traders on each platform, offering a comprehensive overview of sentiment.

Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of intelligence than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on financial models and company reports, while this market incorporates the collective wisdom of many traders who consider a broader range of information, including real-time data, supply chain issues, and consumer sentiment. Discrepancies between this market’s implied probability and analyst estimates can signal opportunities for informed traders. It’s also common to see markets react more quickly to new information than analyst revisions.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Kroger Q3 sales market can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-making strategies contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket currently favors Will Kroger Q3 identical sales without fuel growth be between 0.5% and 1%? at 35.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will The Kroger Co. report Above 0% identical sales growth (excl. fuel) in Q3 2026? at 72.0%. Furthermore, differing fees and trading limits on each platform can influence price formation. The spread between the two platforms reflects the varying interpretations of available information and risk appetite among traders on each venue. These differences are normal in decentralized prediction markets.

This market resolves around Apr 2, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Kroger’s official Q3 2026 earnings report, specifically the reported percentage change in identical sales excluding fuel. Traders should monitor Kroger’s investor relations website for the official release of their quarterly results. The outcome of this market will reflect the actual reported figure, providing a clear and objective assessment of Kroger’s sales performance.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, such as inflation reports or consumer confidence indices, could shift expectations for retail sales. Company-specific news, including Kroger’s own earnings previews, announcements of major partnerships, or changes in management, could also move the market. Furthermore, broader industry trends, like shifts in grocery shopping habits or disruptions in the supply chain, could influence trader sentiment. Any news impacting Kroger’s competitive position or overall economic outlook has the potential to cause price fluctuations.