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Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth?
polymarket

Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth?

Volume:
$83,051

1%–1.5%

 - Polymarket

1%–1.5% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 18, 12:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

1%–1.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.5¢
N/A
$20,341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.5%–2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,712
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether Kroger's identical sales growth excluding fuel will fall between 1% and 1.5% for the first fiscal quarter of 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome currently stands at 38.5%, with the 1.5% to 2% range at 30.5%. Resolution will be determined by Kroger's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. Watch for Kroger's Q1 2026 earnings announcement expected around June 18, 2026, which will provide the official identical sales without fuel growth figure needed to settle this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Kroger's announced identical sales without fuel growth for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Kroger's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this retail earnings metric. It displays the current probability of each outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $3,367. The dashboard aggregates all bets placed on whether Kroger's Q1 identical-store sales excluding fuel will fall within specific growth ranges. Traders use this data to monitor market sentiment and identify shifting expectations ahead of the company's earnings announcement. The total group volume across all outcomes stands at $82,834, reflecting sustained trader interest in this key performance indicator.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader expectations for Kroger's Q1 identical-store sales growth excluding fuel, often diverging from published analyst consensus. While Wall Street forecasts tend to cluster around consensus estimates, prediction markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment and assign probabilities to specific outcome ranges. Traders betting on this metric weigh earnings guidance, comparable-store sales trends, and macroeconomic headwinds differently than traditional equity analysts. The market's probability distribution can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk relative to consensus, making it a complementary signal to formal analyst research and company guidance.

The Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth market resolves on Jun 18, 2026, aligning with the company's official earnings release and disclosure of this metric. Resolution hinges on Kroger's reported identical-store sales growth figure excluding fuel, which the company typically provides in its quarterly earnings report and investor materials. The actual reported percentage will be matched against the predefined outcome ranges to determine which contract settles to 100 cents and which settle to zero. Traders should monitor Kroger's earnings calendar and any pre-release guidance that might affect the final reported figure.

Several catalysts could shift market odds for Kroger's Q1 identical-store sales growth excluding fuel. Comparable-store sales trends from competitors like Walmart and Target may signal broader grocery demand. Kroger's own monthly or preliminary sales updates, if released, would directly inform expectations. Macroeconomic data on consumer spending, inflation, and employment could reshape trader views on grocery traffic and basket size. Management commentary during investor conferences or earnings calls may hint at Q1 performance. Regulatory developments affecting the Albertsons merger or labor negotiations could impact operational efficiency and sales. Finally, any guidance revisions or pre-announcement surprises would likely trigger sharp repricing across all outcome contracts.