TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST?
D+45 or redder
- Kalshi
D+45 or redder - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Latest in Elections
Time left: 01d:14h:26m
Will KPOW Midterms be at least -45.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST?
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Description
The markets assess the likely outcome of the 2026 US midterm elections by tracking a specialized index that aggregates predictive trading activity. The index reflects collective market expectations about which party may gain an advantage in key races. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of expected Republican performance relative to Democrats.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the 15-minute time-weighted average of the Kalshi American Power Index - Midterms (KPOW Midterms) ending at 12:00 PM EST on November 4, 2026. The index ranges from -50 (indicating Democratic candidates are certain to win every weighted race) to +50 (indicating Republican candidates are certain to win every weighted race), with specific thresholds defined for each market (e.g., D+45 or redder resolves to Yes if the average is at least -45.0). The average is calculated and published by Pyth using the methodology detailed in Appendix B of the KPOW Midterms filing, using the precision Pyth publishes without rounding. Only trades executed at or before 12:00 PM EST are considered, and any price move held by the index's price check counts only once accepted. Single published values of the index—including 30-second updates and the value at the exact deadline—as well as charts, indicative figures, and third-party recalculations, do not count. If a constituent market stops trading, is determined, or settles, it retains its last accepted price, meaning that the certification or calling of any race alone does not directly affect the index. Each market's outcome depends solely on whether the calculated average meets or exceeds its specified threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the KPOW Midterms. Polling data often reflects stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put capital behind. This difference can be significant, particularly in scenarios where voters may be hesitant to express their true intentions to pollsters. The current volume on Kalshi is $0, indicating active trading and a dynamic assessment of potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, incorporating new information as it becomes available, potentially reacting faster than polls.
On Kalshi, the KPOW Midterms market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether KPOW Midterms will be at least -10.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current 24-hour volume is $0, and the total volume traded to date is $220. This dynamic pricing allows for a collective intelligence view to emerge, reflecting the aggregated insights of all participants.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results reported for the KPOW Midterms. The market will determine whether KPOW Midterms will be at least -10.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available data and doesn’t involve any subjective judgment calls. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to the resolution date for updates and potential impacts on the market.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as candidate debates, endorsements, or unexpected campaign announcements, are likely to cause price fluctuations. Economic news releases, particularly those related to key states, could also influence trading activity. Shifts in public opinion, as reflected in new polls, will be closely watched by traders. Unexpected events, like major news stories or geopolitical developments, could also introduce volatility. Any information that alters perceptions of the likely outcome of the KPOW Midterms has the potential to move this market.
