TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
KPOW Midterms on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?
D+45 or redder
- Kalshi
D+45 or redder - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:06h:40m
Will KPOW Midterms be at least -45.0 on Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?
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Description
The markets assess the likely outcome of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections by tracking a specialized index that reflects the balance of power between Democratic and Republican candidates across key races. The index aggregates real-time trading data to gauge shifts in political momentum leading up to Election Day. Outcomes are determined by comparing the final index value against predefined thresholds that indicate varying degrees of partisan advantage.
Kalshi
All markets in this event resolve based on the 15-minute time-weighted average of the Kalshi American Power Index - Midterms (KPOW Midterms) ending at 12:00 AM EST on November 4, 2026, calculated and published by Pyth according to the methodology detailed in Appendix B of the KPOW Midterms filing. The index ranges from -50 (indicating Democratic candidates are certain to win every weighted race) to +50 (indicating Republican candidates are certain to win every weighted race), with specific thresholds defined for each market (e.g., D+45 or redder resolves to Yes if the average is at least -45.0). Only trades executed at or before 12:00 AM EST are considered, and price moves are counted only once accepted by the index's price check. Single published values of the index—including 30-second updates and the value at the exact deadline—as well as charts, indicative figures, and third-party recalculations, do not count. If a constituent market stops trading, is determined, or settles, it retains its last accepted price, meaning that the certification or calling of any individual race alone cannot directly alter the index value.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research, analysis, and expectations, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay for exposure to a particular outcome in the 2026 midterm elections, and changes constantly with new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results of the 2026 midterm elections as reported by trusted news sources and election authorities. The specific outcome that determines the resolution will be based on the market’s definition of a successful outcome, as defined on Kalshi. Traders should review the market details on Kalshi for a complete understanding of the resolution process.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major economic announcements, shifts in key political endorsements, unexpected candidate developments, and significant changes in polling data are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events or unforeseen crises could also influence trader sentiment and impact the market. Furthermore, any news regarding voter turnout expectations or changes to election laws could lead to price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.
