TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Kimi K4 released by…?
polymarket

Kimi K4 released by…?

Jul 24, 2026, 6:03 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$29,966
Volume 24h:
$6,157
365%
Liquidity:
$2,588
52%
Open interest:
$15,372N/A

March 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

March 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?

26%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 30¢ buys you 333 shares | Odds: 26% Total Payout: $333 | Net Profit: $233 Multiplier: 3.33x | ROI: 233% High Projected APY: 1,268% Low liquidity 167 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
26%
18%
Yes 30¢No 77.9¢
7.9¢
$862
$2,497
39%
110%
N/A
5mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

9%
1%
Yes 10¢No 93¢
3¢
$541
$10,402
0.86%
7%
N/A
2mo 2w 4d
active
polymarket

October 31, 2026

3%
1%
Yes 4.5¢No 99¢
3.5¢
$1,185
$17,067
46%
63%
N/A
2w 2d 23h
active
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Kimi K4 release market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5,602. This view shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of various release timelines, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment and activity for the Kimi K4 release market.

Currently, this market shows a strong tilt toward an earlier release date, with the top outcome holding 26.1% probability. Many analysts are split, with some bullish on a speedy rollout while others caution about delays from regulatory or technical hurdles. The gap between market odds and analyst consensus often narrows as new testing data or official statements emerge, so tracking this market offers a real-time barometer of shifting expectations.

This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The exact release date will be checked against official announcements, product launch events, or regulatory approvals, and the market will settle based on the first date that meets the criteria.

Key signals include official developer announcements, regulatory clearance updates, pre-launch testing results, and any supply chain or manufacturing delays. Major tech publications or industry conferences often accelerate movement, as do surprise policy changes or competitor actions that shift market expectations. Traders will watch these cues closely, as each new development can shift odds dramatically before Apr 1, 2027.