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394,660

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30,119

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2,626

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5

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Khamenei # posts June 26 - July 3, 2026?
polymarket

Khamenei # posts June 26 - July 3, 2026?

Volume:
$17,365

<5

 - Polymarket

<5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 12:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

15-19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

5-9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,048
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25-29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10-14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55-59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-54

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20-24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30-34

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45-49

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$500
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35-39

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40-44

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 26, 12:00 PM ET and July 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 26, 12:00 PM ET and July 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

The Khamenei social media activity market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading volume for predictions about Iran's Supreme Leader's posting frequency during a specific week in summer 2026. The interface displays the current price of the leading outcome, historical price movements, and total liquidity. This market has attracted volume of $17,365 overall, with $2,651 traded in the last 24 hours, reflecting active trader interest in forecasting his social media behavior during this period.

Prediction markets differ fundamentally from polls because they aggregate financial incentives rather than survey responses. Traders in this market are betting real money on a specific, measurable outcome—the exact number of posts during the defined window—rather than answering hypothetical questions. This creates a direct cost to being wrong, which often produces sharper probability estimates than traditional polling. However, both approaches depend on the quality of available information and the accuracy of underlying data sources.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once the trading window closes and the outcome can be verified. The result will be determined by counting the total number of posts made during the specified week, confirmed against credible public sources. Traders who correctly predicted the final count will receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on an objective, verifiable metric rather than subjective interpretation.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Major geopolitical developments involving Iran might alter the Supreme Leader's communication patterns or frequency. Changes in his health status or official duties could affect his social media engagement. Unexpected diplomatic events, regional tensions, or domestic political developments might prompt increased or decreased posting activity. Additionally, any clarifications about what counts as a post on his official channels could influence trader positioning as the resolution date approaches.