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364,467

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Kansas wheat production in 2026
kalshi

What will Kansas wheat production be in 2026?

Aug 18, 2026, 7:00 PM EST - Oct 7, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$24,190
Volume 24h:
$6,884
2,125%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$6,809
35%

Above 175 million bushels

 - Kalshi

Above 175 million bushels - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 7, 2026

Time left: 27d:06h:54m

Will Kansas’s winter wheat production for 2026 be above 175 million bushels?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 73% 27 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 175 million bushels

Trade
96%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$1
0%
0%
$1
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 185 million bushels

Trade
79%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
N/A
$4,564
5%
38%
$935
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 190 million bushels

Trade
51%
Yes 54¢No 49¢
3¢
N/A
$10,467
174%
886%
$3,935
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 195 million bushels

Trade
15%
Yes 18¢No 85¢
3¢
N/A
$7,146
0%
90%
$1,250
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 200 million bushels

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$1,838
0%
84%
$638
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 205 million bushels

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
75%
$50
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 180 million bushels

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 6d 6h
active
kalshi

Above 210 million bushels

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 6d 6h
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the expected yield of Kansas winter wheat for the 2026 harvest season. It uses official agricultural data to determine whether production surpasses specific thresholds. The outcome reflects real-world agricultural performance influenced by factors like weather and farming practices.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDA NASS’s official Kansas Winter Wheat - Production estimate for the 2026 crop, measured in bushels. Each market has a distinct threshold: production above 185 million, 190 million, 195 million, or 200 million bushels results in a 'Yes' outcome for that respective market. The underlying data source is consistent across all markets, ensuring a unified reference point for resolution. The event categorizes outcomes based on progressively higher production targets, allowing participants to assess varying levels of agricultural performance expectations for Kansas in 2026.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced or forward-looking view of Kansas wheat yields. Analysts may rely on historical data, weather patterns, and current growing conditions, while traders incorporate real-time information and expectations about future disruptions. If 96.0% diverges sharply from recent polling averages, it could signal trader anticipation of unexpected factors like extreme weather or policy changes affecting the harvest.

This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final production figure will be drawn from official agricultural statistics, and the market will close based on that verified number. Timing depends on when authoritative sources release the 2026 harvest data, typically several months after the growing season ends.

Key signals that could shift this market include weather forecasts for major Kansas growing regions, updates from agricultural extension services, and government reports on crop conditions. Any indication of drought, pest outbreaks, or changes in farming practices may cause rapid re-pricing. Additionally, market moves often follow commodity price fluctuations, since Kansas wheat farmers adjust planting and harvesting decisions based on economic incentives seen in broader markets.