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406,019

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June Inflation US - Annual
polymarket

June Inflation US - Annual

Volume:
$870,572

≤3.6%

 - Polymarket

≤3.6% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 14, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

≤3.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$100,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$140,026
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$117,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$92,490
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,394
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≥4.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether the annual inflation rate for the 12-month period ending June 2026 will be 3.6% or lower, measured by the Consumer Price Index before seasonal adjustment. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—inflation at 3.6% or less—stands at 100.0%, while annual inflation reaching 4.0% is priced at 0.1%. The market will resolve according to the official Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, which will provide the definitive 12-month inflation figure to one decimal place.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending June 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for June 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

The June Inflation US - Annual dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this financial event. It displays the current probability of outcomes, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $123,117. The dashboard aggregates order-book depth, recent trades, and liquidity metrics to help traders monitor how the market is pricing inflation expectations for the June annual period. Updated continuously, it provides a live snapshot of market sentiment and positioning around US inflation data releases.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from consensus analyst forecasts because markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction, while analyst surveys reflect point-in-time estimates. Analysts typically publish inflation expectations weeks in advance, whereas prediction markets adjust continuously as economic data, Fed communications, and employment reports emerge. Comparing Polymarket odds to major forecaster consensus—such as Bloomberg surveys or Federal Reserve projections—reveals whether traders are pricing in more hawkish or dovish inflation outcomes than the professional consensus expects for June.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, June Inflation US - Annual is priced through an automated market maker or order-book mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing different inflation outcome ranges. The current odds reflect the ratio of capital allocated to each outcome bucket. As new inflation data, employment reports, or Fed signals emerge, traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how quickly prices respond to news, with deeper order books enabling tighter spreads and faster price discovery around this key macroeconomic event.

The June Inflation US - Annual market resolves on Jul 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official inflation data release for the June annual period, which establishes the factual outcome against which all trades are settled. The specific inflation metric, reporting source, and outcome thresholds are defined in the market's terms at creation. Traders should review the full market documentation to understand exactly which data point triggers settlement and how outcome ranges are defined.

Key catalysts for June Inflation US - Annual include monthly Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases, employment data, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and energy price movements. Unexpected wage growth, supply-chain disruptions, or shifts in monetary policy expectations can rapidly reprrice inflation odds. Geopolitical events affecting commodity prices, changes in consumer demand, and revisions to prior inflation readings also influence trader positioning. Real-time market reaction to these data points will drive price discovery on Polymarket leading up to the June inflation release.