TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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July Inflation US - Annual
kalshi
polymarket

What will US annual inflation be in July 2026?

Volume:
$915,851

3.4%

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 11:06 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.4%

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$108,549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Exactly 3.4%

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$34,487
N/A
N/A
$23,097
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3.3%

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.3%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,596
N/A
N/A
$20,527
Settled
No
polymarket

3.5%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$81,345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.5%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,491
N/A
N/A
$20,515
Settled
No
polymarket

≤3.1%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.6%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,426
N/A
N/A
$5,627
Settled
No
polymarket

3.2%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,529
N/A
N/A
$20,750
Settled
No
polymarket

3.7%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,220
N/A
N/A
$4,579
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,152
N/A
N/A
$322
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,085
N/A
N/A
$85
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,007
N/A
N/A
$384
Settled
No
polymarket

3.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,696
N/A
N/A
$1,893
Settled
No
polymarket

3.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 3.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,576
N/A
N/A
$2,193
Settled
No
polymarket

4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,540
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,748
N/A
N/A
$2,557
Settled
No
polymarket

4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Exactly 4.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,412
N/A
N/A
$2,403
Settled
No
polymarket

≥4.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 38

Intro

This market tracks whether the annual US Consumer Price Index inflation rate for July 2026 will be exactly 3.4%. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 100.0%, drawn from data on Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on official Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The final settlement will occur following the release of the July 2026 CPI data on August 12, 2026, providing a definitive answer to participants and market observers alike.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines a closed discrete set of 26 exact CPI values (2.0%–4.5%) with implicit No resolution outside that range, while Polymarket uses overlapping binary thresholds and point values that may not fully cover the outcome space. The platforms also differ in how they handle outcomes outside their stated ranges.Hero tip: Verify with each platform whether CPI outcomes below 2.0% or above 4.5% are possible and how they resolve. If actual inflation falls outside Kalshi's 2.0%–4.5% range, that market resolves No by implication; Polymarket's coverage of extreme outcomes is unclear. Consider this when sizing positions across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Discrete multi-outcome market: resolves Yes if CPI is exactly one of 26 values from 2.0% to 4.5% in 0.1% increments. Any outcome outside this range implicitly resolves No. Quote: 'If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Multiple binary markets using BLS report (one decimal precision). Covers 3.1% or less, specific point values 3.2%–4.1%, and 4.2% or more. Gaps exist: outcomes between 2.0%–3.0% are not explicitly listed. Quote: 'This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.6% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.7% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.8% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 2.9% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.6% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.7% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.8% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 3.9% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.0% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.1% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.2% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.3% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.4% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the CPI year-over-year is exactly 4.5% in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The US July annual inflation market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi on what the year-over-year Consumer Price Index will be in July 2026. This dashboard consolidates real-time odds from both venues, letting you compare how each platform's community is pricing inflation expectations. Traders on both sites are wagering on whether inflation will hit specific thresholds or ranges. By tracking the US July annual inflation market across multiple prediction platforms, you gain insight into consensus forecasts and spot where professional traders and the broader public diverge on near-term price pressures.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional economist surveys because they reflect real money at stake and continuous price discovery. Traders update odds instantly as new economic data arrives, whereas analyst forecasts are typically published monthly or quarterly. This market's odds embed forward-looking sentiment from participants who profit or lose based on accuracy, creating incentives for honest positioning. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to consensus CPI forecasts from the Federal Reserve or major banks can reveal whether traders expect inflation to surprise higher or lower than the median estimate.

Monthly jobs reports, wage growth data, and commodity price swings are key catalysts that reshape inflation expectations. Federal Reserve policy announcements and interest rate decisions influence how traders price future price pressures. Energy markets, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical events can all trigger sharp repricing. Consumer spending reports and producer price indices released in the months leading up to July will also drive significant order flow. Any surprise in these data points typically causes rapid bid-ask adjustments as traders recalibrate their inflation forecasts.