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July 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
kalshi

What will the July 2026 headline and core CPI MoM changes be?

Volume:
$86,521

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

 - Kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Closed: Aug 12, 8:25 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,750
N/A
N/A
$1,688
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Headline: 0.3% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,915
N/A
N/A
$3,690
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.1% or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,986
N/A
N/A
$6,473
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: 0.1% or below

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,756
N/A
N/A
$10,993
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: 0.3% or above, Core: 0.3% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,571
N/A
N/A
$6,155
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: 0.3% or above, Core: 0.1% or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,303
N/A
N/A
$4,897
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: 0.3% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,485
N/A
N/A
$4,219
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,202
N/A
N/A
$3,583
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: 0.3% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,324
N/A
N/A
$2,390
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: -0.1% or below, Core: 0.1% or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,286
N/A
N/A
$2,400
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,230
N/A
N/A
$1,855
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.1% or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,429
N/A
N/A
$648
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.0%, Core: 0.3% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,305
N/A
N/A
$1,277
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.1%, Core: 0.3% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
$596
Settled
No
kalshi

Headline: Exactly 0.2%, Core: Exactly 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$367
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the month-over-month percentage changes in the Consumer Price Index for July 2026, comparing headline inflation (all items) against core inflation (excluding food and energy). Each contract outcome represents a specific combination of headline and core CPI movements, and pays out only if both components occur simultaneously during the specified period.

Kalshi

This combination market resolves based on the simultaneous occurrence of specific headline and core Consumer Price Index month-over-month percentage changes for July 2026. Headline CPI refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items, while Core CPI refers to the single-decimal month-over-month percent change in CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy. Each contract outcome specifies distinct thresholds for both headline and core components; resolution to Yes requires that ALL specified conditions are satisfied concurrently. If any single component fails to meet its threshold or becomes impossible to achieve, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Resolution uses the first officially released economic data value from ECONSTAT, excluding preliminary or revised estimates unless explicitly specified. Both headline and core components are resolved according to their corresponding Kalshi rulesets for individual CPI MoM markets. All conditions must be satisfied within the July 2026 time period for any outcome to resolve affirmatively.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the July 2026 CPI inflation market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for headline and core consumer price index outcomes in July 2026. The dashboard displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $1,349 to help traders monitor sentiment around inflation expectations. This market aggregates predictions from traders betting on whether CPI readings will fall within specific ranges, offering a dynamic snapshot of market-implied inflation probabilities as economic data approaches release.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional economist surveys because traders incorporate real-time data, market sentiment, and forward-looking signals that may not yet be reflected in analyst consensus. While economists typically publish point forecasts months in advance, this market continuously reprices based on incoming employment reports, wage data, and commodity prices. Comparing the implied odds here to published analyst expectations reveals whether traders expect inflation to surprise higher or lower than the consensus view, making it a useful barometer of market-driven inflation expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different CPI outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a specific inflation band, and the market price reflects the collective probability traders assign to that outcome. As new economic data emerges or sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing traders to enter or exit positions throughout the trading window.

This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, following the official release of July 2026 CPI data. The outcome is determined by the actual headline and core inflation figures published by credible public sources, with the market settling based on which outcome range the official readings fall into. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome band receive their payout once the data is verified and confirmed.

Key catalysts include monthly employment reports, wage growth data, producer price indices, and Federal Reserve communications on monetary policy. Energy and commodity price swings can significantly impact headline inflation expectations, while wage trends and service-sector pricing drive core inflation bets. Unexpected geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, or shifts in Fed guidance could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, prior-month CPI releases and consumer spending data will influence trader positioning as July approaches, making this market sensitive to the full economic calendar leading into the release date.