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Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?
kalshi

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

Volume:
$585,087

Above -25,000

 - Kalshi

Above -25,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -25,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,815
N/A
N/A
$47,049
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 30,000

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$104,345
N/A
N/A
$62,197
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 125,000

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$69,655
N/A
N/A
$60,065
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50,000

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,539
N/A
N/A
$44,342
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,253
N/A
N/A
$48,734
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60,000

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48,238
N/A
N/A
$34,963
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100,000

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$46,303
N/A
N/A
$24,161
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37,181
N/A
N/A
$20,914
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,980
N/A
N/A
$27,828
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 80,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,587
N/A
N/A
$14,203
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 20,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,687
N/A
N/A
$17,939
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,368
N/A
N/A
$13,346
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,134
N/A
N/A
$9,601
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether U.S. non-farm payroll employment will grow by more than 90,000 jobs in July 2026, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report. The leading outcome—that job additions will exceed this threshold—currently stands at 87.0% probability. Resolution will occur following the BLS release of July 2026 employment data on August 7, 2026, which will determine whether the labor market maintains growth above the specified level.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes based on the increase in total non-farm payroll employment reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for July 2026. Multiple thresholds range from -25,000 to 125,000 jobs, allowing traders to bet on specific employment growth levels. Markets close at 8:29 AM ET on the expected data release date.

Frequently asked questions

The Jobs numbers in Jul 2026 market resolves on Aug 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official employment data released for July 2026, which will establish whether the specified job-addition threshold has been met. Traders should monitor the scheduled release date and any revisions to prior months' figures, as these can influence final settlement. The market locks at Aug 7, 2026, after which payouts are distributed based on the confirmed outcome.

Key catalysts for price movement include monthly employment reports released before July 2026, which establish trend momentum and market expectations. Federal Reserve policy announcements and interest-rate decisions will shape hiring incentives and recession risk perception. Inflation data, consumer spending reports, and corporate earnings guidance all influence labor-demand forecasts. Geopolitical shocks, trade policy changes, or unexpected economic slowdowns can trigger sharp repricing. As Aug 7, 2026 approaches, the actual July jobs report will be the final determinant, but forward-looking economic surprises will drive odds throughout the prediction window.