TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Crypto
Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
limitless

Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

Volume:
$7

0.0%–0.8%

 - Limitless

0.0%–0.8% - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 16, 8:00 PM EST

limitless

Limitless

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

0.0%–0.8%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
99.8¢
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

<-2.4%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

-2.4%– -1.6%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

-1.6%– -0.8%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

-0.8%–0.0%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

0.8%–1.6%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

1.6%–2.4%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

2.4%–3.2%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

3.2%–4.0%

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

4.0%+

N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Limitless

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects trader expectations that are somewhat more optimistic or pessimistic than recent analyst forecasts, depending on recent economic data releases and policy signals from the Bank of Japan. The odds capture a forward-looking consensus that can diverge from spot price assessments, especially if new indicators emerge before Aug 17, 2026. These differences highlight how market participants price in risks and potential policy responses.

This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final figure will be determined by official data releases from Japan’s Cabinet Office, marking the end of trading and settling all positions based on the actual quarterly GDP growth rate announced for that period.

Key signals include Japanese Cabinet Office preliminary and final GDP releases, Bank of Japan policy decisions, major global economic shocks, and shifts in consumer spending or business investment data. Each of these can reshape expectations for growth and cause rapid price swings in this market as traders reassess risk and potential policy reactions leading up to Aug 17, 2026.