TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
polymarket
kalshi

James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?

Volume:
$425,900

Fishback 10–15%

 - Polymarket

Fishback 10–15% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 27, 1:33 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Fishback 10–15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$36,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fishback <10%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$280,544
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Yes

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,319
N/A
N/A
$13,564
Settled
No
polymarket

Fishback 30%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fishback 20–25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fishback 15–20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fishback 25–30%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,829
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether James Fishback will secure a 10–15% vote share in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary, with the current aggregated consensus at 98.7%, and a secondary outcome of 25–30% at 1.0% across Polymarket and Kalshi. Official Florida election results serve as the resolution source. Watch the August 18, 2026 primary date for the final vote count to determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Divergence in resolution logic due to candidate eligibility rulesHero tip: Monitor candidate eligibility status closely; a removal before the election could trigger an early resolution on Kalshi but not Polymarket.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on final vote share thresholds from official Florida results. If results are unknown by November 30, 2026, it resolves to the lowest bracket.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if James Fishback is removed or becomes ineligible before the election, even if votes for him would otherwise not count.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Kalshi

If James Fishback is removed or otherwise ceases to be an eligible listed candidate in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, including where his name remains printed but votes cast for him will not be counted after Issuance and before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the 2026 Florida GOP governor race across multiple venues, showing how traders price the chances of different outcomes. It aggregates volume and odds from various platforms, giving you a live snapshot of market sentiment. With total volume at $425,900 and 24-hour volume of $32,579, you can see where interest is concentrated and how consensus shifts over time.