TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
The Democrats
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The Democrats - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Latest in Elections
Time left: 21d:10h:18m
Will The Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Israeli Knesset election?
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Description
The outcome determines which political party secures the fourth position in Israel's parliament following the 2026 election. This ranking is based solely on the number of seats each party wins, reflecting their electoral performance in the proportional representation system used by Israel.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the final certified results of the 2026 Israeli Knesset election. Ranking is determined by the number of seats allocated to each party or list, following the Central Elections Committee's official seat distribution. Parties or lists that win no seats cannot place fourth. If multiple parties tie for the same number of seats, they share the corresponding rank positions; for example, a tie for third place results in both parties being considered tied for third and fourth. Joint candidate lists are treated as single entities, and their seats are not split among constituent parties. In the event of an exact tie for fourth place among multiple parties, the resolution is divided equally among the tied entities, with the payout calculated as $1 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down. Any party or list that withdraws or is disqualified after the filing deadline but remains on the ballot is ranked based on the votes it received.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture stated voter intentions, this market represents what people are *willing to bet* on, potentially factoring in strategic voting, turnout biases, and other nuances that polls might miss. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the incentives inherent in each approach. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, sometimes diverging from polls, and then converging as the election draws nearer and more certainty emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a particular party finishing in fourth place. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and the implied probabilities sum to less than 100% due to the platform’s margin. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official results of the Israeli parliamentary election are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official vote count determining which party receives the fourth-highest number of seats in the Knesset. The market will settle to 100 minus the percentage chance of the top three parties winning seats, and the fourth-place party will be the one with the highest probability of winning. Any disputes will be resolved based on widely accepted election results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in updated polling data, would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected political endorsements, scandals involving key candidates, or significant policy announcements could also move the market. Furthermore, geopolitical events or changes in the economic situation within Israel could influence voter behavior and, consequently, the odds. Any news that alters perceptions of a party’s chances of securing the fourth-highest vote share has the potential to create volatility in this market.
