TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:28 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Israeli parliamentary election determines the distribution of seats among competing parties and lists. The outcome identifies which party achieves the third-highest seat count in the Knesset based on official certification, reflecting the political landscape and voter preferences at the time of the election.
Kalshi
The market resolves based on the official certified results of the 2026 Israeli Knesset election. A party or list is considered to have finished in 3rd place if it secures the third-highest number of seats according to the Central Elections Committee's final certification. Rankings follow the electoral authority's seat allocation order for proportional representation systems, and are based strictly on Knesset seats rather than national vote share. Parties or lists that win no seats are ineligible for 3rd place. Joint candidate lists are treated as single entities, with their seats counted collectively; name changes alone do not alter a party's identity, and separate lists' seats are not combined through surplus-vote agreements or post-election coalitions. If no listed party achieves or ties for 3rd place, all markets resolve as NO. In the event of an exact tie for 3rd place among multiple parties, the payout is divided equally among tied entities, calculated as $1 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked according to the votes they received.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The third-place finisher will be determined by the final seat count reported after all votes are tallied and any necessary recounts or legal challenges are resolved.
Key signals that could shift this market include major polling updates showing shifts in voter preferences, strategic announcements from parties regarding alliances or leadership changes, significant media coverage influencing public perception, and any legal or electoral developments that affect the race’s dynamics. Each of these can cause rapid reassessments among traders, moving probabilities for third place.
