TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:27 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The Israeli parliamentary election determines the distribution of seats among competing parties in the Knesset. This event focuses on identifying which party secures the second-highest number of seats following the official certification of results, reflecting the political landscape and voter preferences without considering coalition formations or post-election adjustments.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the official certified results of the 2026 Israeli Knesset election, specifically determining which party or joint list finishes in 2nd place by seat count. Rankings follow the Central Elections Committee's final seat allocation order for proportional representation, using Knesset seats rather than national vote share. Parties or lists receiving no seats are ineligible for 2nd place. Joint candidate lists are treated as single entities, with seats not split among constituents, and new joint lists are distinct from existing parties even if names change. If no listed party achieves 2nd place, all markets resolve as NO. In the event of a tie for 2nd place among multiple parties, the resolution is divided equally among tied entities (e.g., $1 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down). Candidates withdrawing or being disqualified after the filing deadline but remaining on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The second-place finisher will be determined by the official count of votes following the election day, and the market will close based on that verified ranking. No additional interpretation or judgment is required beyond the publicly announced official results.
Several signals could shift this market before resolution, including major polling updates showing shifts in voter preferences, debates or controversies involving key parties, and developments around electoral strategy or coalition negotiations. As the election date approaches, any event that changes perceptions of each party's ability to secure second place — whether through voter momentum, strategic alliances, or media coverage — may cause traders to adjust their bets and move the odds.
