TOTAL VOLUME:

$148.5b

24H VOL:

$251,268,536

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,817,056,367

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,864,438,999

455,542

Markets across

34,846

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,830

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Israeli Legislative Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket
limitless

Who will win the Israeli Legislative?

Total volume:
$2,219,070
Volume 24h:
$340,605
267%
Liquidity:
$1,007,727
12%
Open interest:
$57,230
0.76%

Yashar

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 27, 2027

Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election?

73%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 73¢ buys you 137 shares | Odds: 73% Total Payout: $137 | Net Profit: $37 Multiplier: 1.37x | ROI: 37% | APY: 33% 398 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Yashar

Trade
73%
3%
Yes 73¢No 28¢
1¢
N/A
$17,926
1%
32%
$10,298
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Yashar

Trade
72%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
$377,130
$716,359
14%
134%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
limitless

Yashar

Trade
72%
Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢
1¢
N/A
$5
0%
0%
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
71.5%
Yes 72.2¢No 28.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Likud

Trade
28%
Yes 29¢No 73¢
2¢
$253,585
$880,824
21%
97%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
kalshi

Likud

Trade
28%
14%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
N/A
$37,171
0.82%
16%
$18,426
1y 1mo
active
limitless

Likud

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 72¢
2¢
N/A
$36
0%
0%
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28%
Yes 28.7¢No 72.3¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Together

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$4,916
0%
0%
$3,214
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Together

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.4¢
0.3¢
$134,380
$460,304
27%
209%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
limitless

Together

Trade
N/A
N/A
1.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.8%
Yes 1.5¢No 99.7¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Bennett 2026

Trade
0%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.9¢
1.8¢
N/A
$39,071
0.04%
1%
$23,341
1y 1mo
active
kalshi

Yesh Atid

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 100¢
0.4¢
N/A
$2,019
0%
0%
$1,019
1y 1mo
active
kalshi

National Unity

Trade
0%
Yes 2.6¢No 99.9¢
2.5¢
N/A
$932
2%
141%
$932
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

Otzma Yehudit

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$76,067
$25,618
0%
63%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
limitless

Otzma Yehudit

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

The Democrats

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$78,040
$22,931
0%
92%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
limitless

The Democrats

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
polymarket

Shas

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$88,524
$10,962
0%
0%
N/A
2d 23h 26m
active
limitless

Shas

Trade
N/A
N/A
99.9¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 99.9¢Max: 99.9¢
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the next Israeli legislative election, specifically forecasting whether Yashar will secure the most seats in the Knesset. Currently, the aggregated probability of Yashar winning is 73.0%, based on data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the election, as determined by official results – specifically, a Yes resolution if Bennett wins in 2026. Keep an eye on the election scheduled for October 27, 2026, as this will be a key indicator of the final outcome and the market’s resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers markets resolving if any of a pre-defined set of parties win, while Polymarket and Limitless focus on individual parties winning the most seats.Hero tip: Consider the differing scope when trading. Kalshi's markets are more likely to resolve 'Yes' as long as one of the listed parties wins, even if they don't have a majority. Polymarket/Limitless require a clear majority for a 'Yes' resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Bennett, Yesh Atid, National Unity, Likud, Yashar, or Together wins the election. Essentially a set of 'any of these win' markets.
  • Polymarket: Offers markets on whether a *specific* party (Likud, Yashar, etc.) will win the *most* seats. Resolves based on official results, with tiebreakers for vote count and alphabetical order.
  • Limitless: Mirrors Polymarket's approach, offering markets on individual parties winning the most seats, resolving based on official results and tiebreakers.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Israeli electoral authority. The winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the Knesset, even if they do not form the government. If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that does not resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote. If the election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date for a maximum of two years. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.

Limitless

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likely outcome of the Israeli election. It aggregates trading volume of over $2,219,031 with $332,488 traded in the last 24 hours, providing a consensus view of the probabilities across both platforms. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? at 71.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Yashar win the next Israeli legislative election? at 73.0%. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of the potential results of the Israeli election, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. This can lead to divergences, as prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information, including polling data, expert analysis, and real-time events. The spread between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can sometimes be significant, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the Israeli election outcome. This is especially true as we get closer to Nov 27, 2027.

Prices for the Israeli election outcome may differ between Polymarket and Kalshi due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with potentially differing information and risk tolerance, leading to distinct price discovery processes. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform – currently $2,219,031 overall – isn't evenly distributed, which can amplify price discrepancies. These differences reflect the independent nature of each market, even when tracking the same underlying event.

This market resolves around Nov 27, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which party wins the most seats in the Israeli Knesset following the election. The final result will be determined by official election authorities and widely reported by major news organizations. Traders should monitor news sources as the election approaches to stay informed about potential developments that could impact this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 27, 2027. Major political endorsements, shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, and unexpected campaign gaffes by leading candidates are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events or security incidents could also influence voter sentiment and, consequently, trading activity. Additionally, any changes to the electoral laws or the announcement of new political alliances could have a substantial impact on the perceived probabilities of different outcomes in the Israeli election.