TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the Yisrael Beiteinu party in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, focusing on the number of seats it secures. The outcome depends on whether the party achieves specific seat thresholds, reflecting its electoral strength and potential influence in the new legislature.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the number of seats Yisrael Beiteinu wins in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, with different thresholds specified for each market (above 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11 seats). All markets share consistent secondary rules: if Yisrael Beiteinu participates in a joint candidate list or merges with another party before the election, all seats won by that list or merged entity count toward the threshold. A seat is considered 'won' when a candidate affiliated with Yisrael Beiteinu (or its joint/merged list) is declared elected, legal challenges are resolved, and the member takes their seat. The seat count is determined when the new legislature convenes, regardless of subsequent party changes or vacant seats. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled, the market resolves at the last fair market price. Only seats from the main election and any simultaneous by-elections are counted; partial elections and delayed by-elections are excluded unless seated with the main legislature. A name change alone does not alter the party's identity for counting purposes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Israeli legislative election. Polls often capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, while this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, or the market’s ability to rapidly adjust to new information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the likely outcome of the election and the number of seats Yisrael Beiteinu will win.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different seat outcomes for Yisrael Beiteinu. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, these prices fluctuate, providing a real-time indication of expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contracts are denominated in USD, and the price represents the cost to purchase a contract that pays out $1 if the specified outcome is correct.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats won by Yisrael Beiteinu, as declared by the Central Elections Committee, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the final, official seat allocation following the election and any subsequent recounts or legal challenges that impact the final seat count. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct seat total will receive a payout of $1 per contract.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market before Nov 11, 2026. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in updated polling data, could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Significant political endorsements, scandals involving key party figures, or unexpected policy announcements could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, geopolitical events or changes in the broader political landscape within Israel could introduce new uncertainties and lead to price fluctuations in this market. Any news that alters perceptions of Yisrael Beiteinu’s electoral prospects has the potential to move the market.
