TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Description
This market tracks the potential performance of a specific political party in an upcoming national election. The outcome depends on how many seats the party secures, reflecting its electoral support and influence in the legislature.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the number of seats Shas, the party led by Aryeh Deri, wins in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. A seat is counted when a candidate affiliated with Shas is declared elected, legal challenges are resolved, and the member takes their seat. If Shas runs on a joint list or merges with another party, all seats won by that list or merged party are counted. The count occurs when the new legislature convenes, regardless of subsequent party changes. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled, the market resolves at the last fair price. Only seats from contested and filled elections are counted, with by-elections included only if seated simultaneously with the main legislature.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages for the Israeli legislative election. While polls offer a snapshot of voter intention at a specific moment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals, allowing it to potentially incorporate a wider range of factors. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases in polling, or the market’s ability to react quickly to breaking news and evolving political dynamics. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different seat outcomes for Shas, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a particular outcome, the price of those contracts increases, reflecting a higher probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time forecast of the election results.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official seat allocation for Shas in the Israeli legislative election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats officially awarded to Shas by the Central Elections Committee will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the official results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders should monitor official announcements from the relevant electoral authorities as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected endorsements or controversies involving key political figures could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant developments in the political landscape, such as coalition negotiations or changes in party platforms, could influence traders’ assessments of Shas’s potential seat count. Finally, any news regarding voter turnout or potential irregularities in the election process could also move this market.
