TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The markets track the potential success of Ra'am, a political party in Israel, in the 2026 legislative election by measuring how many seats it might secure. Outcomes depend on whether Ra'am wins a specific number of seats or more, reflecting its electoral performance. The rules account for possible alliances or mergers with other parties before the election.
Kalshi
These markets assess whether Ra'am, the party led by Mansour Abbas, will secure more than a specified number of seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Ra'am wins above the threshold defined for each market—ranging from more than 3 to more than 8 seats. If Ra'am participates in a joint candidate list or merges with another party before the election, all seats won by that list or merged entity count toward Ra'am's total. A seat is counted when a candidate affiliated with Ra'am (or its allied/merged list) is officially declared elected, legal challenges are resolved, and the member takes their seat. Party affiliation is based on the banner under which the candidate was elected, and the count is finalized when the new legislature convenes. If the election is postponed beyond one year or canceled, the market resolves at the last fair price. Only seats from contested and filled races are counted, with by-elections included only if seated simultaneously with the main legislature.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to analyst forecasts, as those forecasts vary considerably and are often qualitative. However, prediction markets like this one aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a more accurate signal than any single expert’s opinion. If analysts consistently predict a certain range of seats for Ra'am, and this market consistently prices outcomes outside that range, it could indicate a divergence in expectations. It’s important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts are imperfect tools for predicting future events.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting their own prices. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and provide a real-time assessment of the likelihood of different seat outcomes for Ra'am.
This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the 2026 Israeli legislative election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of seats won by the Ra'am party, as officially declared by the Central Elections Committee, will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the final, certified results, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are announced.
Several factors could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major shifts in Israeli public opinion, reflected in polling data, would likely impact trading activity. Political developments such as changes in party leadership, the formation or dissolution of alliances, or significant policy announcements could also cause price fluctuations. Unexpected events, like a major security incident or economic shock, could also influence market sentiment. Furthermore, any news specifically relating to the Ra'am party, such as prominent endorsements or scandals, would likely be reflected in the price of contracts within this market.
