TOTAL VOLUME:
$148.8b
24H VOL:
$198,054,468
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,818,096,072
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,851,647,753
460,044
Markets across
34,696
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,795
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
At least 4,800,000
- Kalshi
At least 4,800,000 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Latest in Elections
Time left: 08d:23h:05m
Will at least 4,800,000 ballots be cast in Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election?
$
Description
This event tracks voter participation in an upcoming national election, focusing on the total number of ballots cast. It reflects public interest and engagement in the democratic process by measuring how many people participate, regardless of whether their votes are deemed valid. The outcome depends solely on the official tally of all submitted ballots.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election meets specific voter turnout thresholds, with separate markets for ballot counts ranging from 4,800,000 to 5,800,000. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the officially certified total of valid and invalid ballots meets or exceeds its respective threshold. The Central Elections Committee provides the official count, and only ballots reflected in the certification—including provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic votes—are counted. The contract adheres to the 'Fully-Conducted Elections' and 'Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations' provisions, meaning results are based solely on certified data, not preliminary counts, exit polls, or projections. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the original date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled before voting concludes, all contracts resolve to 'No.' Ongoing appeals do not affect the resolution, which relies exclusively on the final certified tally.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Israeli election. While some polls and analysts predict a specific range for voter turnout, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in conventional polling data. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies, access to unique information, or simply varied interpretations of the same data. It's important to remember that both prediction markets and analyst forecasts represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy 'yes' contracts (believing turnout will be above a certain threshold) or sell 'no' contracts (believing it will be below). On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely voter turnout. The market's depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official voter turnout percentage is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official figures released by the Central Elections Committee of Israel. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure transparency and accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the final, verified turnout percentage. This market provides a unique opportunity to forecast the election outcome before it is officially known.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as unexpected endorsements or scandals involving key candidates, could shift voter sentiment and influence turnout expectations. Shifts in polling data, particularly if they show a significant change in voter preferences, would likely cause price adjustments. Additionally, any news related to potential disruptions to the voting process, such as security concerns or logistical challenges, could also move the market. Finally, broader geopolitical events or economic news impacting Israel could indirectly affect voter turnout and, therefore, the market.
