Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, marking the deadline for determining whether an Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting has occurred. Resolution depends on whether credible evidence of an official or substantive diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon emerges before that date. The specific criteria—such as meeting format, participant level, and documentation—are defined in the market's resolution rules. Traders should review the full resolution framework on Polymarket to understand exactly what qualifies as a valid meeting for settlement purposes.

Key catalysts include announcements of scheduled diplomatic talks, mediation efforts by international actors, ceasefire agreements, or statements from Israeli and Lebanese officials indicating willingness to meet. Regional security developments, UN initiatives, or US diplomatic engagement could accelerate or delay meeting prospects. Conversely, escalations in cross-border tensions, political instability in either country, or hardline rhetoric might reduce the probability. Market participants monitor news from regional media, government statements, and diplomatic channels for signals about the likelihood and timing of a formal meeting before May 31.