TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 15, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key catalysts include ceasefire agreements, UN-brokered peace initiatives, or statements from Israeli and Lebanese leadership signaling willingness to negotiate. Regional developments—such as Hezbollah actions, Israeli military operations, or international mediation efforts—directly influence market pricing. Announcements of scheduled talks, diplomatic envoy visits, or third-party facilitation (e.g., by the US, France, or Arab states) would likely spike odds upward. Conversely, escalations, political instability, or hardline rhetoric could reduce confidence in near-term diplomacy. Media reports of back-channel negotiations, confidence-building measures, or humanitarian agreements may also move prices. Traders monitor geopolitical news, official statements, and regional security developments closely as signals of diplomatic momentum heading toward the June 7, 2026 deadline.