TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
ISM Services PMI - July 2026
polymarket
kalshi

What will the ISM Services PMI be in July 2026?

Volume:
$48,810

54.0–54.9

 - Polymarket

54.0–54.9 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 12:05 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

54.0–54.9

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 54

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,628
N/A
N/A
$940
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 53

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$988
N/A
N/A
$592
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 52

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$131
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
polymarket

53.0–53.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,719
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 55

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,647
N/A
N/A
$4,022
Settled
No
polymarket

55.0–55.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<50.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,588
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

52.0–52.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,772
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

57.0–57.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56.0–56.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50.0–50.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

51.0–51.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 56

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$715
N/A
N/A
$588
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 57

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$233
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 58

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$18
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 59

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This group of markets focuses on predicting the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026. The PMI is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and readings below 50 indicating contraction.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets on Polymarket are based on the ISM Services PMI for July 2026, while the markets on Kalshi are based on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026.Hero tip: Traders should verify which index (Services vs. Manufacturing) and which month (July vs. August) they are trading. The divergence in the reported month and index type could lead to different outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on the ISM Services PMI for July 2026, with specific brackets for different PMI ranges. The resolution source is the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026, scheduled for August 5, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve based on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026, with thresholds starting from 52 upwards. The resolution source is the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for August 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Multiple markets resolve based on the headline PMI value from the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for August 2026. All markets share the same data source—the ISM-published figure rounded to one decimal place—and resolve to 'Yes' if that value meets or exceeds their specific threshold, ranging from 52 to 59. No other factors influence resolution; only the numerical comparison determines outcomes across all related markets.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the ISM Services PMI market shows real-time consensus views across multiple prediction venues. It aggregates pricing data from Polymarket and Kalshi, reflecting collective trader expectations for the July 2026 reading. With a total volume of $48,810 and 24-hour volume of $8,540, the dashboard highlights how market participants price the likelihood of various outcomes for this key economic indicator.

Currently, odds across platforms imply a roughly even split over possible outcomes, differing somewhat from many analyst forecasts that tend to cluster around specific ranges. While analysts may lean on historical trends and current economic momentum, prediction markets incorporate real-time sentiment and speculative positioning. This creates a useful contrast — where analysts offer reasoned projections, traders in this market price in what they think will happen, often reacting faster to new data or shifts in expectations.

Key signals include major economic reports such as U.S. service sector expansion data, employment figures, and consumer spending metrics — all of which feed into expectations for the PMI reading. Central bank announcements, especially from the Federal Reserve, can also shift sentiment quickly. Additionally, geopolitical developments or sudden shifts in global trade flows may influence trader positioning in this market as they adjust forecasts for service industry health heading into July 2026.