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405,232

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BETA
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Tour
All
Politics
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
polymarket

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Volume:
$5,846,810

Iraq

 - Polymarket

Iraq - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 4, 2026

Closed: Apr 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Iraq

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,113,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kuwait

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,039,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bahrain

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$204,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

UAE

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$112,616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Saudi Arabia

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$41,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Israel

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Kuwait

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Saudi Arabia

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jordan

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Bahrain

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0.2¢
N/A
$1,194,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qatar

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$262,965
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Oman

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Azerbaijan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$109,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Jordan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lebanon

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Pakistan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,474
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

France

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Turkey

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,186
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Poland

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

UK

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

India

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,302
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cyprus

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Syria

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,090
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Hungary

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Germany

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 32

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.