TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
polymarket

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Volume:
$235,544

April 3

 - Polymarket

April 3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 4, 2026

Closed: Apr 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

April 3

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$34,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 6

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
35.2¢
N/A
$31,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 4

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.2¢
N/A
$23,462
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 8

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,963
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 1

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,042
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 7

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

April 9

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,197
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 10

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 2

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 11

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 12

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 13

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 14

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 15

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 16

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 17

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 18

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 19

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 20

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 22

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 23

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 24

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 25

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 26

N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.