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Iran closes its airspace by...?
polymarket

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Volume:
$69,366,105

June 8

 - Polymarket

June 8 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 7, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 8

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,787,806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,867,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,862,884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$345,744
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$248,814
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 22

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
3.2¢
N/A
$186,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

May 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,430,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,565,902
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,426,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 27

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,974,148
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,782,046
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,372,287
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 18

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,647,429
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$664,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks whether Iran will initiate a major closure of its airspace—defined as a broad suspension of commercial flights across Iran or a major region, excluding weather-related closures—by June 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. On Polymarket, the leading outcome "Iran closes its airspace by June 8?" is priced at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official information from Iranian aviation authorities and credible reporting, with qualifying closures including suspensions affecting at least two major airports or broad airspace regions similar to the January 2026 total closure or April 2024 western airspace closure. Watch for any official announcements from Iran's Civil Aviation Authority or major international aviation news sources before the June 8 resolution deadline.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN). Qualifying previous examples include the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508) and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in a qualifying region (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

The Iran closes its airspace by...? dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for this geopolitical event. It displays the current probability that Iran will close its airspace by specific dates, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. The dashboard shows 24-hour volume of $745,617, total group volume of $69,360,095, and the leading outcome's current odds. Historical price charts let you visualize how market sentiment has shifted over time, reflecting changing assessments of Iranian airspace closure risk.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket differ from traditional polling because they reflect real financial stakes rather than survey responses. Traders betting on Iran airspace closure must commit capital, creating incentives for accuracy. While polls measure stated opinion at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information continuously. The current market odds reflect traders' collective assessment of geopolitical risk, sanctions escalation, and regional tensions. Comparing market prices to expert forecasts or news sentiment can reveal whether traders are pricing in risks that analysts may underestimate or overweight.

The Iran closes its airspace by...? market resolves on Jul 31, 2026. Resolution depends on whether Iran formally closes its airspace before that date. Traders should monitor official announcements from Iran's aviation authority, NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) declarations, and credible international news sources. The specific date thresholds embedded in each outcome determine which contracts settle YES or NO. Early closure triggers resolution of earlier-date outcomes; if no closure occurs by the final deadline, those contracts expire worthless. Clarity on what constitutes an official closure—temporary restrictions versus permanent bans—matters for accurate prediction.

Key catalysts for this market include escalating military tensions, new sanctions regimes, direct military strikes on Iranian infrastructure, or diplomatic breakthroughs. Statements from Iranian leadership, US policy shifts, or regional proxy conflicts could rapidly shift closure probability. Technical disruptions to airports or air traffic control systems might trigger temporary closures. Market prices will spike on breaking news of imminent conflict or plunge on peace negotiations. Traders should track geopolitical risk indices, oil price volatility, and statements from Iranian officials. Historical precedent—such as the 2020 airspace closure after the Soleimani assassination—shows how quickly these events can materialize.