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$142.3b

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2,643,541,936

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471,138

Markets across

35,775

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Iowa Senate Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Iowa Senate election?

Total volume:
$5,968,974
Volume 24h:
$140,510
118%
Liquidity:
$683,892
2%
Open interest:
$3,082,211
3%

Republican party

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 59¢ buys you 169 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $169 | Net Profit: $69 Multiplier: 1.69x | ROI: 69% High Projected APY: 978% 81 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 59¢No 42¢
1¢
N/A
$2,403,218
3%
12%
$1,545,753
2mo 3w
active
predict

Ashley Hinson (R)

Trade
58%
Yes 59.1¢No 44¢
3.1¢
$123,578
$1,592
0%
2%
N/A
2w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
57%
Yes 58¢No 43¢
1¢
$229,002
$392,174
0.18%
10%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
58.8%
Yes 58.7¢No 43¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3.1¢
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
42%
2%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
N/A
$2,676,083
2%
11%
$1,536,459
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
42%
1%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
$254,677
$494,478
2%
23%
N/A
2w 6d
active
predict

Josh Turek (D)

Trade
42%
1%
Yes 43¢No 60¢
3¢
$76,635
$1,429
0%
8%
N/A
2w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
41.9%
Yes 42.3¢No 59.3¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 3¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election. Currently, the consensus probability that Republicans will win the race is 59.0%, while the probability of a Democratic win is 42.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, and will resolve according to the outcome reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). Traders should watch the results of the primary elections scheduled throughout 2026, as they will provide key insights into each party’s candidate strength.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winner of the 2026 Iowa Senate election, using the same primary resolution sources and a consistent fallback to official certification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs.
  • Party-specific markets resolve if a representative of that party is sworn in as Senator for the term beginning in 2027.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Source Disagreement: If the AP, Fox News, and NBC do not all call the race for the same candidate, the market will resolve based on the official certification.
  • Independent Candidates: Candidates running as independents are not considered part of the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The Iowa Senate market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate sworn in as U.S. Senator for the term beginning in 2027. A Republican party representative being sworn in resolves the market to Yes under one outcome, while a Democratic party representative being sworn in resolves it to Yes under another outcome. The resolution depends on the official swearing-in of the elected Senator for the specified term.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the potential outcome of the Iowa Senate election. It aggregates trading activity from both platforms to provide a consensus view of who is likely to win. Currently, the combined volume across these markets is $5,968,951, with $140,257 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a comprehensive assessment of predictions regarding the Iowa Senate election, reflecting the collective wisdom of market participants. The dashboard provides a unique perspective beyond traditional polling data.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling reflects stated preferences, while this market represents what people are willing to *bet* on. This can be a crucial distinction, as betting involves real financial stakes. While polls can be useful, they are susceptible to biases and inaccuracies. The current spread between the leading outcome and its closest competitor is 1.5. This market provides a continuously updated forecast, incorporating new information as it becomes available, unlike polls which are snapshots in time.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and interpretations of available information can also lead to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket favors Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? at 57.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa? at 59.0%. These differences reflect the unique perspectives of traders on each platform, creating opportunities for arbitrage and informed speculation.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which candidate wins the majority of votes in the Iowa Senate election. The final result will be determined by official election results and verified against credible public sources. Trading will cease prior to this date, allowing for a clear and definitive outcome to be established based on the official count.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, shifts in economic conditions affecting Iowa, and significant campaign events could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the candidates’ campaigns, such as scandals or policy changes, could also cause price fluctuations. Polling data releases, while not always directly correlated, can also impact trading activity. Any event that alters perceptions of the candidates’ chances of winning could lead to substantial movement in this market.