TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
35% - 40%
- Kalshi
35% - 40% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 2, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 2, 10:12 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate participates in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary election, with the certified popular vote percentage determining the outcome across multiple predefined ranges.
Kalshi
Vote percentage is calculated as total votes received by Zach Lahn divided by total valid votes cast, multiplied by 100. Resolution uses certified official results only, excluding preliminary counts. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. For ranked choice voting, the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution. Votes for the same person listed multiple times or under multiple parties are summed together.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate trader expectations, campaign momentum, and real-money incentives. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, prediction markets reflect dynamic beliefs about final vote share. Lahn's market odds may run ahead of or lag behind polling depending on recent developments, fundraising, endorsements, or perceived electability. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd sees different momentum or information than pollsters capture.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Zach Lahn's vote-share contract is priced as a continuous outcome market where traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in his final vote percentage. The price moves based on order flow and new information. Traders profit if the actual outcome exceeds their purchase price and lose if it falls short. Kalshi's pricing mechanism aggregates dispersed beliefs into a single market price, which serves as a real-time consensus estimate of Lahn's expected vote share in the Iowa Republican Governor primary.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027 following the Iowa Republican Governor primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count reported for Zach Lahn in that race. The outcome reflects his actual vote percentage as certified by Iowa election authorities. Until that date, the market remains open for trading, and prices will fluctuate based on campaign developments, polling updates, and trader sentiment about his likely performance on election day.
Key catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in Lahn's support, campaign announcements or endorsements, debate performances, media coverage, and fundraising reports. Candidate withdrawals or entries could reshape the race dynamics. Major news events affecting Iowa politics or national Republican momentum may also influence trader expectations. Turnout models and early voting data closer to election day will drive final price adjustments. Any scandal or gaffe involving Lahn or rivals could trigger sharp market moves as traders reassess his vote-share prospects.
