TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
35% - 40%
- Kalshi
35% - 40% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 2, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 2, 10:13 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
A candidate participates in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary election, with the certified popular vote percentage determining the outcome across multiple predefined ranges.
Kalshi
The vote percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Randy Feenstra ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect trader expectations for Feenstra's vote share, which often diverge from traditional polling due to real-money incentives and information asymmetries. Polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, while markets incorporate ongoing developments, campaign momentum, and insider knowledge. Comparing the two reveals whether traders expect Feenstra to outperform or underperform public surveys. Significant gaps may signal either market inefficiency or information the polls have not yet captured heading into the primary.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, Randy Feenstra's vote-share outcome is priced as a binary or range contract reflecting trader consensus on his final vote percentage. The price moves based on order flow, new information, and shifts in campaign dynamics. Traders buy contracts at lower prices if they expect Feenstra to exceed a given threshold, or sell if they expect underperformance. Kalshi's continuous order book allows real-time price discovery, with spreads tightening as the primary date approaches and liquidity increases.
The market resolves on Jun 2, 2027, following the Iowa Republican Governor primary election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count for Randy Feenstra reported by Iowa election authorities. The outcome reflects his final vote percentage or vote-share bracket, depending on the specific contract structure. Once results are certified and confirmed, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on whether their positions matched the realized outcome.
Key catalysts include campaign announcements, debate performances, endorsements from Iowa Republican leaders, and shifts in voter sentiment. Media coverage of Feenstra's record or primary opponents can shift trader positioning. Polling releases, early voting data, and turnout indicators often trigger sharp price moves. Last-minute candidate withdrawals or consolidation of support behind rivals could significantly impact Feenstra's expected vote share. Unexpected controversies or gaffes in the final weeks typically cause rapid repricing as traders update their probability estimates.
