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501,518

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,933

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5

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Iowa Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi
predict

Who will win the Iowa Governor election?

Total volume:
$2,370,424
Volume 24h:
$46,538
2%
Liquidity:
$326,505
16%
Open interest:
$1,438,767
2%

Democrat

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 14, 2027

Time left: 12d:10h:05m

Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

89%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% High Projected APY: 2,530% 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Democrat

Trade
89%
1%
Yes 89¢No 12¢
1¢
$80,749
$158,703
5%
20%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
predict

Rob Sand (D)

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 13.7¢
0.7¢
$80,661
$650
0%
0%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
86%
1%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
N/A
$849,943
0.23%
9%
$626,291
2mo 3w 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
86.4%
Yes 87.7¢No 13.2¢
Avg: 0.9¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$1,213,712
3%
25%
$812,476
2mo 3w 2d
active
predict

Zach Lahn (R)

Trade
13%
Yes 14¢No 89.1¢
3.1¢
$33,103
$201
0%
0%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
polymarket

Republican

Trade
12%
Yes 13¢No 89¢
2¢
$131,992
$147,214
5%
27%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
13.8%
Yes 13.7¢No 88.4¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3.1¢
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election, specifically whether the Democratic party will win. Currently, the consensus probability of a Democratic victory is 88.0%, as aggregated from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification). The Republican party is currently estimated at 14.0%. Keep an eye on the results following the election on January 14, 2027, as this date represents the expected timeframe for major news outlets to declare a winner and for markets to resolve.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms align on resolving to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election using the same primary sources and handling of independent candidates.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (with fallback to official certification)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.
  • The winner is determined by a consensus call from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
  • If no consensus is reached, the official certification of the election results will be used.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, the official certification process will determine the winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, their market will likely be voided or adjusted based on platform-specific rules. However, the overall election market will continue based on the remaining candidates.
  • Independent Candidate Victory: An independent candidate winning will result in 'Other' winning on markets that include that option, and no Democrat or Republican market will resolve positively.
Timing: The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or upon official certification of the election results.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on which party's representative is inaugurated as Iowa governor following the 2026 election. A Democratic party representative's inauguration resolves the market to Yes for that outcome, as does a Republican party representative's inauguration for their respective outcome.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the collective wisdom of bettors on the outcome of the Iowa Governor election. It aggregates trading volume of over $2,370,424 with $45,538 traded in the last 24 hours, providing a consensus view of who is most likely to win. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? at 88.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa at 86.0%. This allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities as new information emerges, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional polling.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often offer a more accurate forecast than traditional polling averages. Polls can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, while prediction markets incentivize participants to express their genuine beliefs, backed by real capital. This creates a strong signal, as traders are motivated to identify and capitalize on mispriced probabilities. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects revealed preferences, providing a potentially more reliable indicator of the final result. The difference between poll averages and the implied probabilities here can be insightful.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity levels, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. For example, Polymarket might attract a more politically engaged audience, while Kalshi could have a broader range of participants. Differences in trading fees or market design can also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, differing levels of volume on each platform can amplify these effects, creating temporary imbalances in the odds.

This market resolves around Jan 14, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by which candidate is officially declared the winner of the Iowa Governor election by the relevant election authorities. The market will reflect the official results, providing a clear and objective determination of the winner. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election progresses and the results are tallied.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, shifts in fundraising numbers, and significant policy announcements from the candidates would all likely cause price movements. Unexpected economic news or national political trends could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to substantial shifts in probabilities. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing trends, could trigger adjustments in the market's assessment of the likely outcome.