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24H VOL:

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2,820,087,997

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,739,090,488

444,140

Markets across

34,296

events

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2,700

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Science and Technology
Iowa ethanol production in 2026
kalshi

What will Iowa's ethanol production be in 2026?

Aug 18, 2026, 7:00 PM EST - Feb 7, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$127,673
Volume 24h:
$7,465
83%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$27,785
12%

Above 4.3 billion gallons

 - Kalshi

Above 4.3 billion gallons - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 7, 2027

Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 7% 104 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.3 billion gallons

Trade
97%
Yes 98¢No 3¢
1¢
N/A
$42,029
8%
61%
$6,662
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.4 billion gallons

Trade
95%
Yes 96¢No 5¢
1¢
N/A
$25,805
0%
0%
$6,812
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.5 billion gallons

Trade
81%
Yes 82¢No 19¢
1¢
N/A
$13,299
51%
55%
$4,171
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.6 billion gallons

Trade
49%
Yes 50¢No 52¢
2¢
N/A
$5,073
0%
0%
$796
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.7 billion gallons

Trade
18%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
N/A
$5,822
0.73%
0.8%
$2,475
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.8 billion gallons

Trade
8%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
N/A
$16,532
0%
0.82%
$2,081
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 4.9 billion gallons

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$14,185
0%
6%
$2,689
3mo 2w
active
kalshi

Above 5.0 billion gallons

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$4,930
0%
83%
$2,100
3mo 2w
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks Iowa's ethanol production levels for the year 2026, focusing on whether output surpasses specific thresholds. The outcome depends on official reports from the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, reflecting the state's performance in ethanol manufacturing during that year.

Kalshi

The event evaluates Iowa’s ethanol production for the calendar year 2026 against four sequential thresholds: 4.5 billion gallons, 4.6 billion gallons, 4.7 billion gallons, and 4.8 billion gallons. All markets resolve based on reports from the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA), which serves as the definitive source for production data measured in gallons. If the reported production exceeds any of the specified thresholds, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of production reaching increasingly ambitious targets, with each threshold building upon the previous one. The underlying data remains consistent across all markets, ensuring uniformity in measurement and reporting standards.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Feb 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final production figure will be compared against official sources to determine the correct result, closing all positions based on the actual data released at that time.