TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Josh Turek, 25-30%
- Kalshi
Josh Turek, 25-30% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 7, 1:03 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
The margin of victory for a candidate in the 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate primary, measured across various victory margin ranges.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated by subtracting the vote total or percentage of the second-place finisher from the first-place finisher's total, or vice versa if the candidate loses. For percentage-point margins, consecutive ranges are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound (e.g., 5.99999% falls in the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range). If Josh Turek runs under multiple parties or appears multiple times, votes are summed. Winning margins are positive; losing margins are negative. Ties result in a 0 margin. Uncontested races where Josh Turek is the only nominee result in a 100 percentage-point margin. Votes from the same underlying candidate are consolidated regardless of party affiliation or ballot listing.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-time campaign developments, fundraising data, and historical primary patterns that polls may lag in capturing. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets reflect the collective financial commitment of participants betting on the actual margin outcome. Comparing the two reveals whether the market is pricing in a tighter or wider victory margin than current surveys suggest, offering insight into whether traders expect late momentum shifts or polling error in the Iowa Democratic primary.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the Iowa Democratic Senate primary margin of victory is priced as a set of binary outcome contracts, each representing a specific margin range. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, where the price reflects the implied probability of that margin occurring. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief in a wider or narrower victory, depending on the contract structure. Kalshi's order book allows continuous price discovery as new information emerges, with contracts settling based on the final certified primary results.
The market resolves on Jun 3, 2027, following the Iowa Democratic Senate primary election. Resolution is determined by the official certified margin of victory between the top two finishers in the primary. The outcome is based on the final vote count released by Iowa election authorities, which establishes which margin bracket the actual result falls into. Markets typically settle within days of the primary once results are officially certified and any recounts or challenges are resolved.
Major catalysts include candidate endorsements from national Democratic figures, debate performances, campaign spending surges, and shifts in early voting or caucus turnout models. Polling releases showing tightening or widening gaps between frontrunners will directly impact margin expectations. Media coverage of candidate gaffes, policy announcements, or organizational strength in Iowa counties can shift trader sentiment. Ground-game reports, volunteer mobilization data, and late-breaking news about candidate viability will influence whether traders expect a close contest or a decisive victory as primary day approaches.
