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Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19, 2026
kalshi

What will jobless claims be?

Volume:
$8,193

At least 190,000

 - Kalshi

At least 190,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 190,000

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,231
N/A
N/A
$1,062
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 195,000

View
100%
25%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,161
N/A
N/A
$842
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 185,000

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$765
N/A
N/A
$749
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 180,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 200,000

View
0%
65%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,596
N/A
N/A
$1,085
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 205,000

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,104
N/A
N/A
$1,039
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 215,000

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$969
N/A
N/A
$887
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 220,000

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$832
N/A
N/A
$831
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 210,000

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$491
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 225,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 230,000

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

Initial jobless claims measure the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during a specific week. These claims serve as a real-time indicator of labor market health and economic conditions. Tracking these figures helps economists and policymakers gauge the stability of employment and anticipate potential economic shifts.

Kalshi

This set of markets collectively evaluates the level of initial jobless claims reported for the week ending September 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of claims, ranging from 180,000 to 230,000. The outcome for any given market will resolve to "Yes" if the officially reported number of initial jobless claims for that week meets or exceeds the threshold specified by that market. Markets with higher thresholds represent more severe labor market stress. All markets resolve based on the same underlying data release from the U.S. Department of Labor, ensuring consistency across thresholds. The final resolution will indicate which, if any, of these claim levels were achieved.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the jobless claims market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19, 2026. You can view the price history, which shows how the perceived probability of different claim numbers has changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $4,511, and the total volume traded to date, which is $8,193. This provides insight into how actively traders are participating in this market and where the most interest lies.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not yet widely available for this specific date in the future. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst predictions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the number of initial jobless claims. As we approach Sep 24, 2026, it will be possible to assess how this market’s predictions align with expert opinions at the time.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the number of initial jobless claims. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the eventual number of claims.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 19, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The U.S. Department of Labor releases this data weekly, and that official figure will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the final settlement price and whether their predictions were accurate shortly after the official data is released.

Several economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in the overall economic growth rate, shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and major layoffs announced by large companies are all potential catalysts. Additionally, any surprising data releases related to employment, such as the monthly jobs report, could influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events or unforeseen disruptions to the labor market could also move this market as traders adjust their expectations before Sep 24, 2026.