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Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30th
kalshi

Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30th

Volume:
$19,454

At least 215000

 - Kalshi

At least 215000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 4, 2026

Closed: Jun 4, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 215000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,867
N/A
N/A
$4,549
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 220000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,377
N/A
N/A
$2,462
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 210000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,375
N/A
N/A
$1,494
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 225000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,187
N/A
N/A
$1,206
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 205000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,101
N/A
N/A
$1,100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 195000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 200000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
$76
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 230000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,135
N/A
N/A
$855
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 235000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 240000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks whether initial jobless claims in the United States will reach or exceed 200,000 for the week ending May 30, 2026. The leading outcome currently stands at 95.0% probability. Resolution is determined by the Department of Labor's official report on initial jobless claims. Watch for the Department of Labor's release on June 4, 2026, which will provide the definitive claims figure for that week and settle the market.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Initial jobless claims for the week ending May are priced on Kalshi as a binary or range-based contract tied to the official Department of Labor release for that week. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief about whether claims will fall within or outside specified thresholds. The contract price—ranging from 0 to 100—directly represents the implied probability of the outcome. As traders update positions based on labor reports, Fed commentary, and economic data, the price adjusts in real time, with higher prices indicating stronger market conviction toward a particular outcome.

The Initial jobless claims for the week ending May market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, following the official Department of Labor release of initial jobless claims data for the week ending May 30th. The outcome is determined by the actual number of initial jobless claims filed during that week, as published by the U.S. Department of Labor in its weekly Employment Situation report. This is an objective, government-sourced data point that settles the contract according to the specific claim thresholds defined in the market terms.

Several catalysts could shift odds for Initial jobless claims in the week ending May 30th. Upcoming employment reports, Fed policy announcements, and macroeconomic data releases may alter expectations for labor market conditions. Corporate earnings calls and guidance on hiring plans, geopolitical developments, and changes in consumer spending could all influence layoff and hiring trends. Additionally, seasonal adjustments, weather-related disruptions, or industry-specific shocks may impact weekly claims. Real-time labor market indicators, jobless claims from prior weeks, and shifts in market sentiment about recession risk will drive trader positioning ahead of the official release.